From a non-US perspective, I honestly think the international outcomes of Bush’s presidency were much worse than anything Trump did during his first term and his second term so far. I don’t even think it’s close.
From the outside looking in, Trump seems much worse for the US domestically, especially around basic democratic norms, freedom of speech and rule of law. There is probably some retroactive bias that makes the violations of the GWOT era seem less bad, but overall I would still say Trump is worse.
Is it a darker moment right now? To me, it doesn’t seem like it’s even the most polarised moment since 2016 (every other year since has felt unprecedented) but I’ll defer to people in the US on this.
1 & 2 are basically the same question, so my answer is: it's too soon to tell. On the surface it's easy to say Bush was better, he clearly has a kinder heart and is more personally morally upright. But the destruction of the system of international law did not begin with Russia invading Ukraine or our tacit encouragement of the destruction of Gaza. It began with the invasion of Iraq. The economic conditions that led to Trump's first election in 2016 stemmed from the tax cuts that accompanied the invasion, which together blew up the federal and trade deficits. (There's a reason economists call them twin deficits.) American manufacturing and dried up after China entered the WTO and got Most Favored Nation status -- that was also Bush Jr's doing. The spending and home buying binge, & encouraging low income buyers to purchase homes they couldn't afford, that led to the 2008 housing crisis -- yup, that too. Putting Ukraine and Georgia on the list of NATO aspirants -- yes, that too was Bush Jr.
We have spent the last 20 years reaping what he sowed.
3. This does feel like a much darker time. There was a sunny optimism and solidarity in our pre-smartphone/social media culture that is now a distant memory. The elder millennials who came of age wearing velour tracksuits and watching Paris Hilton milk cows were, on the whole, a happy, well adjusted generation, compared to young people today.
But then, to my earlier point, we are now reaping the terrible harvest we sowed in our naivete and hubris. Of course it's ugly. Of course it feels like the end of something big.
1 &2: No, not yet. Initially I used to think Trump is immoral and stupid - worst combination. But I am beginning to see him as a realist who does not believe "people are good by nature". Because he is not well read he approaches everything from first principles seen through a lens of his instincts - this of course makes him stupid, as in he just cannot understand the complex world and he keeps learning a lesson he should have already known (e.g. regarding Putin). However, this has allowed him to question and reverse the national consensus in several areas: NATO and US led world order, relationships with allies and rivals - particularly his success in forging closer relationships with the Gulf countries, DEI and elite colleges' ideological bias, illegal immigration, and finally, tariffs to bring manufacturing back, but more importantly, raise more revenue that could pay down deficits. I think all these are directionally correct even if the actual policies are sub optimal and will eventually leave US in a better place. Of course, he could crash and burn the economy and leave the US isolated on the world stage, which is when he would be worse than GWB.
3: I don't think so. I think Trump is finally addressing problems that the US has faced for a long time, and I see hope and a chance of a better future. In the short term, yes, there might be setbacks in the area of civil liberties, but the country has gone too far towards the progressive side and a rebalancing is needed.
- What is coming of age? Am I older than you Shadi? I think I was a freshman in high school.
1. Ultimately you should get rid of the sentence, you cannot evaluate something that is happening in real-time. Trump is domestically worse, but not as bad in foreign policy, also let's not forget just how much Cheney helped in his role.
2. Agreed - Probably
3. I doubt even white people feel as much dread today as those in your community during and after 9/11. But perhaps they can empathize more now.
Jan 6 was a riot in a year of riots. 2020 was the year of "good trouble", the year when the opposition decided that a little chaos and violence was worth it if it brought about a change in regime. Why should anyone be surprised if Trump's supporters decided to play the same card.
1. No or not yet, Iraq was based on a false casus belli and had little strategic rationale, liberals should compare this irrationality to our support and entry of troops on the ground for South Vietnam at least premised on domino theory of communist regimes expanding. There was decent reasons to fear this in the Cold War. But the war toppling Saddam Hussein left American troops in a destabilized country torn between ethnic and religious ties, hundred of thousands of Iraqi civilians killed. To stop WMDs that didn't exist, and then to what strategic end? Trump hasn't made such a brazen error in foreign policy like this yet. His strategic bombing of Iran was much more justifiable, far closer to HW's Gulf War 1, but even smaller.
2. Too early to say without the completion of a presidency, and true for any ongoing president. In foreign policy terms, Trump 1 was obviously an upgrade over Dubya. Trump 2 might continue that. To the extent refusing to cap public healthcare spending is the main cause of our deficit in %GDP spend-revenue terms in the early 21st century, Trump is a little better than Obama, a little worse than Dubya?
To the extent we mean domestic social discord, this requires identifying and separating causes and effects of uncivil domestic politics (our domestic politics were obviously in better shape under Dubya, but how much credit should Dubya get for that?) Jan 6 is the most obvious thing to uniquely identify Trump for making worse. I cannot imagine another GOP president doing that, I can imagine a lot of Dem presidencies doing the fiscal overshoot and wave of asylum immigration Biden oversaw.
3. I was very young then, so I can't say how the atmosphere compares. Curious what others think.
From a non-US perspective, I honestly think the international outcomes of Bush’s presidency were much worse than anything Trump did during his first term and his second term so far. I don’t even think it’s close.
From the outside looking in, Trump seems much worse for the US domestically, especially around basic democratic norms, freedom of speech and rule of law. There is probably some retroactive bias that makes the violations of the GWOT era seem less bad, but overall I would still say Trump is worse.
Is it a darker moment right now? To me, it doesn’t seem like it’s even the most polarised moment since 2016 (every other year since has felt unprecedented) but I’ll defer to people in the US on this.
1 & 2 are basically the same question, so my answer is: it's too soon to tell. On the surface it's easy to say Bush was better, he clearly has a kinder heart and is more personally morally upright. But the destruction of the system of international law did not begin with Russia invading Ukraine or our tacit encouragement of the destruction of Gaza. It began with the invasion of Iraq. The economic conditions that led to Trump's first election in 2016 stemmed from the tax cuts that accompanied the invasion, which together blew up the federal and trade deficits. (There's a reason economists call them twin deficits.) American manufacturing and dried up after China entered the WTO and got Most Favored Nation status -- that was also Bush Jr's doing. The spending and home buying binge, & encouraging low income buyers to purchase homes they couldn't afford, that led to the 2008 housing crisis -- yup, that too. Putting Ukraine and Georgia on the list of NATO aspirants -- yes, that too was Bush Jr.
We have spent the last 20 years reaping what he sowed.
3. This does feel like a much darker time. There was a sunny optimism and solidarity in our pre-smartphone/social media culture that is now a distant memory. The elder millennials who came of age wearing velour tracksuits and watching Paris Hilton milk cows were, on the whole, a happy, well adjusted generation, compared to young people today.
But then, to my earlier point, we are now reaping the terrible harvest we sowed in our naivete and hubris. Of course it's ugly. Of course it feels like the end of something big.
1 &2: No, not yet. Initially I used to think Trump is immoral and stupid - worst combination. But I am beginning to see him as a realist who does not believe "people are good by nature". Because he is not well read he approaches everything from first principles seen through a lens of his instincts - this of course makes him stupid, as in he just cannot understand the complex world and he keeps learning a lesson he should have already known (e.g. regarding Putin). However, this has allowed him to question and reverse the national consensus in several areas: NATO and US led world order, relationships with allies and rivals - particularly his success in forging closer relationships with the Gulf countries, DEI and elite colleges' ideological bias, illegal immigration, and finally, tariffs to bring manufacturing back, but more importantly, raise more revenue that could pay down deficits. I think all these are directionally correct even if the actual policies are sub optimal and will eventually leave US in a better place. Of course, he could crash and burn the economy and leave the US isolated on the world stage, which is when he would be worse than GWB.
3: I don't think so. I think Trump is finally addressing problems that the US has faced for a long time, and I see hope and a chance of a better future. In the short term, yes, there might be setbacks in the area of civil liberties, but the country has gone too far towards the progressive side and a rebalancing is needed.
- What is coming of age? Am I older than you Shadi? I think I was a freshman in high school.
1. Ultimately you should get rid of the sentence, you cannot evaluate something that is happening in real-time. Trump is domestically worse, but not as bad in foreign policy, also let's not forget just how much Cheney helped in his role.
2. Agreed - Probably
3. I doubt even white people feel as much dread today as those in your community during and after 9/11. But perhaps they can empathize more now.
Jan 6 was a riot in a year of riots. 2020 was the year of "good trouble", the year when the opposition decided that a little chaos and violence was worth it if it brought about a change in regime. Why should anyone be surprised if Trump's supporters decided to play the same card.
1. No or not yet, Iraq was based on a false casus belli and had little strategic rationale, liberals should compare this irrationality to our support and entry of troops on the ground for South Vietnam at least premised on domino theory of communist regimes expanding. There was decent reasons to fear this in the Cold War. But the war toppling Saddam Hussein left American troops in a destabilized country torn between ethnic and religious ties, hundred of thousands of Iraqi civilians killed. To stop WMDs that didn't exist, and then to what strategic end? Trump hasn't made such a brazen error in foreign policy like this yet. His strategic bombing of Iran was much more justifiable, far closer to HW's Gulf War 1, but even smaller.
2. Too early to say without the completion of a presidency, and true for any ongoing president. In foreign policy terms, Trump 1 was obviously an upgrade over Dubya. Trump 2 might continue that. To the extent refusing to cap public healthcare spending is the main cause of our deficit in %GDP spend-revenue terms in the early 21st century, Trump is a little better than Obama, a little worse than Dubya?
To the extent we mean domestic social discord, this requires identifying and separating causes and effects of uncivil domestic politics (our domestic politics were obviously in better shape under Dubya, but how much credit should Dubya get for that?) Jan 6 is the most obvious thing to uniquely identify Trump for making worse. I cannot imagine another GOP president doing that, I can imagine a lot of Dem presidencies doing the fiscal overshoot and wave of asylum immigration Biden oversaw.
3. I was very young then, so I can't say how the atmosphere compares. Curious what others think.
You cannot possibly think that any other president has been worse than Trump. You cannot POSSIBLY.